A dramatic realignment is reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape as the 2027 general elections approach, with prominent loyalists of former President Muhammadu Buhari mobilizing to thwart President Bola Tinubu’s bid for a second term. What began as quiet discontent within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has erupted into open resistance, exposing deep fissures in the party that once united Nigeria’s most powerful political forces.
Key figures in Buhari’s former inner circle including ex-Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal, and former ministers Rotimi Amaechi and Abubakar Malami are now rallying behind a new opposition coalition. This alliance, which also features former APC National Chairman John Odigie-Oyegun, has found a new home in the African Democratic Congress (ADC), controversially appointing former Senate President David Mark as interim national chairman and ex-Governor Rauf Aregbesola as secretary.
The cracks in the APC are not new. Tinubu, once the architect behind Buhari’s historic 2015 victory, now faces isolation from many he empowered. The union that birthed the APC a merger of Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) was always fragile, held together by a shared desire to unseat the then-ruling party.
By 2023, Tinubu’s “lifelong ambition” to become president was realized, but not without controversy. His campaign weathered a divisive currency redesign, a contentious Muslim-Muslim ticket, and persistent questions about his health. Despite losing in key northern strongholds Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina Tinubu clinched the presidency, but the seeds of discord were sown.
The fallout between Tinubu and El-Rufai, once a transactional relationship, became public after El-Rufai was dropped from Tinubu’s cabinet following a security report. El-Rufai’s subsequent defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and his vocal criticism of Tinubu have emboldened anti-Tinubu elements in the North. This new coalition, drawing from the ADC, SDP, PDP, and disaffected APC members, includes political heavyweights such as Atiku Abubakar, Sule Lamido, Tambuwal, and Babachir Lawal.
However, the unity and legitimacy of this opposition remain in question. ADC’s 2023 presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, has dismissed the coalition’s leadership as illegitimate, noting their tenure expired in 2022.
Despite these challenges, Tinubu’s reputation as a master strategist endures. A senior aide insists the president is “unfazed” and is already rebuilding alliances, particularly in the North. There are even rumors that Tinubu may replace Vice President Shettima with Rabiu Kwankwaso from Kano State to regain lost ground.
Meanwhile, not all Buhari loyalists have joined the rebellion. Some, under the Forum of the defunct CPC within the APC, have reaffirmed their support for Tinubu, with leaders expressing confidence that he will remain their candidate in 2027.
As both camps maneuver for advantage, the prospect of a rematch reminiscent of the 2015 political upset looms. Yet, with the main opposition PDP fractured and the APC facing internal mutiny, Nigeria’s political order is poised for another seismic shift. In the high-stakes chess game of Nigerian politics, underestimating Tinubu could prove costly for his rivals.