Russia has dramatically escalated its aerial assault on Ukraine over the past month, launching thousands of missiles and drones, leading to increased civilian casualties and forcing many Ukrainians into bomb shelters nightly. This surge in attacks, including some of the largest since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, has raised questions about how Russia maintains such an extensive supply despite international sanctions.
Drone Production and Sourcing:
Military technology expert Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo notes a significant increase in the use of long-range drones, which he describes as "easy to manufacture, basically a wooden construct with lightweight material and a warhead inside it". Russia initially imported various Shahed drone variants from Iran. After recognizing their effectiveness, Moscow established a licensed production agreement, involving Iranian engineers and importing necessary components to set up production plants in Russia. Russia has since developed its own upgraded version, the Geran-2, making several adaptations, including painting them black for harder detection at night. Hoffmann states that Russia is now the leading expert on Shahed drones, despite their Iranian origin.
The drones, while not of the same high military grade as Western counterparts, are "good enough" for Russia's purposes. Their primary objective is to overwhelm Ukraine's air defense systems, forcing Ukraine to expend expensive interceptors on relatively inexpensive drones. Russia is reportedly producing thousands of drones monthly, with some estimates suggesting a capacity to launch over 1,000 missiles and drones in a single night. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia aims to produce up to two million FPV (First Person View) drones by 2025, with support from China. China also supplies other drone parts, and North Korea provides ballistic missiles, indicating Russia's reliance on international partners.
Missile Arsenal:
Despite the drone surge, Russia's arsenal of advanced ballistic missiles, specifically the Iskander-M and North Korean-supplied KN-23, has decreased. Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia's stockpile of these missiles dropped from approximately 580 in mid-May to about 300 by early July 2025, a nearly 50% reduction. This includes over 250 Russian-made Iskander-M missiles and approximately 50 KN-23s from North Korea.
Russia has increased its missile production from 40 to 60 missiles per month compared to 2024. In May and June, Russia launched 88 ballistic missiles, with Ukraine's air defense intercepting 23. Over 60 tactical missile system launchers remain deployed near Ukraine's borders, indicating a continued threat.
Western Response and Challenges:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for tougher sanctions against Russia, particularly targeting its oil revenues, which he says fuel Moscow's war machine. U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine and has resumed artillery shell and mobile rocket artillery missile deliveries, following a brief pause due to concerns over depleting U.S. stockpiles.
Experts suggest that Ukraine should prioritize targeting Russian drone launch sites and defense industries producing drone components, such as explosives and electronic chips, rather than solely relying on missile defenses. Sanctioning third countries that help Russia circumvent restrictions, such as Malaysia and Kyrgyzstan, is another potential strategy, though Hoffmann cautions that such measures could also negatively impact the sanctioning countries.
The intensified drone warfare has prompted the U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to fast-track drone production and deployment to counter Russia's advantage in unmanned warfare. However, Russia's ability to produce offensive weapons more cheaply and quickly than Ukraine can produce defensive measures poses a significant challenge.