President Bola Tinubu presented the N58.47 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill, dubbed "Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity," to the National Assembly, targeting revenue of N34.33 trillion against a fiscal deficit of N23.85 trillion at 4.28% of GDP. Key allocations prioritize security at N5.41 trillion, infrastructure N3.56 trillion, education N3.52 trillion, and health N2.48 trillion, with capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion and debt servicing consuming N15.52 trillion. Assumptions include $64.85 per barrel oil price, 1.84 million barrels daily production, and N1,400/$ exchange rate, aiming to boost growth amid reforms.
Economists praise the budget's emphasis on security and infrastructure to tackle insecurity and drive job creation, alongside a shift to single budgeting from April for better planning and accountability. They commend conservative projections and focus on non-oil revenue, human capital via education loans supporting 418,000 students, and fiscal discipline to curb leakages. However, critics flag high debt servicing at 27% of total spend, potential revenue shortfalls from unproven targets, and 70% rollover of 2025 capital projects signaling execution delays.
Fault lines include over-reliance on oil amid volatility, discrepancies in revenue claims versus unpaid contractors, and risks from N1,512/$ exchange rate plus 2.06 million bpd targets that may falter. Analysts urge transparency on implementation, warning that true success depends on execution over announcements, with investor confidence hinging on tangible reforms. Tinubu stressed no tolerance for inefficiencies, positioning the plan for inclusive growth despite reform pains.