South Africa's inbound tourism reached 91% of pre-pandemic overseas arrivals year-to-date, with total figures up 2% over 2019 levels through October 2025, driven by a 31.5% October surge though heavily reliant on regional African land markets. Satsa CEO David Frost cautioned against premature celebrations, noting overseas arrivals trail 9% behind 2019, with Europe (Germany 85.1%, France 80.4%) and Asia (China 42.4%) underperforming despite quarterly gains from weak 2024 baselines.
Strong performers include the US (105.7% of 2019) and Australia (109.4%), boosted by air connectivity like Brazil's SAA/Latam flights and UK British Airways capacity at 142% of 2024. Frost highlighted visa reforms' impact Russia's 2017 lift spurred 133% growth and urged targeted campaigns, digital ETA expansions (e.g., Mexico), and private-public collaboration for balanced recovery beyond Cape Town/Kruger dominance.
Challenges persist in long-haul capacity to Europe and high-yield markets, risking overreliance on intra-African travel amid global competition.