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| Blaise Udunze highlights a stark disconnect between official economic progress reports |
A sharp critique published in Business Post Nigeria argues that frequent policy reversals and poorly sequenced reforms under the current administration are directly contributing to widespread impoverishment, even as some macroeconomic indicators show signs of stabilization.
In the opinion piece titled “How Policy Flip-Flops Are Making Nigerians Poorer,” journalist Blaise Udunze highlights a stark disconnect between official economic progress reports and the lived realities of ordinary citizens. Despite eight consecutive months of easing inflation and modest GDP growth projections, poverty is projected to worsen significantly. According to PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, an additional two million Nigerians could fall into poverty next year, pushing the total to around 141 million people roughly 62% of the population, marking the highest level on record.
The author attributes this paradox to fragile policymaking, inconsistent implementation, weak institutional coordination, and a failure to pair bold reforms with adequate social safety nets. Key 2023 reforms including the abrupt removal of fuel subsidies, exchange-rate liberalization, and emphasis on fiscal discipline delivered immediate shocks without sufficient buffers, leading to explosive price increases across essentials.
Examples abound: a bag of rice has jumped from N35,000 to between N65,000 and N80,000; a crate of eggs from N1,200 to over N6,000; and staples like garri, tomatoes, and pepper have become unaffordable for many households. Inflation, described as a “silent tax,” disproportionately punishes the productive while rewarding speculation. National Bureau of Statistics data for December 2025 shows headline inflation at 15.15% (down from peaks due to rebasing) and food inflation at 10.84%, yet households allocate 70-80% of spending to food, with nominal costs up 20% but real purchasing power down 2.5%.
Udunze stresses that policy flip-flops such as sudden subsidy removals without stabilization mechanisms, oscillating trade restrictions, and currency reforms lacking sequencing—create pervasive uncertainty. This environment makes long-term planning impossible for families and businesses alike, fueling price volatility, income shocks, job losses, and reduced investment.
Compounding the issue is insecurity, particularly banditry and insurgency in the North and Middle Belt, which disrupt farming, cause crop losses, and drive up food prices. The economic cost of insecurity is estimated at $15 billion (about N20 trillion) annually, while security spending consumes 25% of the federal budget (N4 trillion over three years), crowding out investments in health, education, power, and infrastructure. The NBS Multidimensional Poverty Index reveals 63% of Nigerians (133 million) are multidimensionally poor, with rural areas at 72% versus 42% urban, and up to 91% in heavily affected states.
The 2026 federal budget of N58.47 trillion allocates just N206.5 billion (0.35% of total spending, less than 1% of capital expenditure) to poverty alleviation programs, with 96% under recurrent “Service Wide Vote” headings and minimal direct impact. Social protection spending remains at a mere 0.14% of GDP—well below global and regional averages with only 44% of funds reaching the intended poor, according to World Bank data.
Fiscal fragility adds pressure: the budget includes a N23.85 trillion deficit, N15.52 trillion in debt servicing (nearly half of revenue), and public debt exceeding N152 trillion. Borrowing sustains government operations rather than productive investment, forcing households to bear the cost of public goods and widening inequality.
While opportunities exist such as leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area for diversification and job creation the author warns that without inclusive implementation, gains will remain elusive.
Udunze concludes that Nigeria's deepening poverty is not accidental but the predictable outcome of reforms executed without compassion, consistency, or human-centered design. Escaping this cycle requires a disciplined framework that sequences changes with social protections, prioritizes security to unlock economic potential, invests in institutions, and rebuilds public trust. Poverty alleviation must become a national mission, not a fragmented, palliative afterthought.
The piece reflects a critical yet reform-oriented perspective, urging policymakers to align economic discipline with genuine welfare improvements to prevent further erosion of living standards.
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